Appendix 3 - Further Work

Revised series of population estimates

A detailed study of the data used in the construction of the population estimates series for the 1990s and 1980s will now be carried out. This work will be an important input to the preparation of a revised population series for Scotland for the years 1982-2000 to provide a consistent time series between the 1981 and 2001 figures. Additionally, these analyses may suggest methodological improvements that can be made in preparing estimates of migration which would be incorporated in future estimates of the population. A revised set of population estimates for 1982-2000 will be available in February 2003.

Other work on quality

The lack of a reliable source of data from which to estimate international migration is a particular concern, and a UK National Statistics project has been initiated to review the quality of international migration statistics. This project will review the data and methods with the aim of recommending improved approaches to measuring these migration flows, and is scheduled to report in 2003.

In addition, further work will be undertaken to examine migration between England & Wales and Scotland with the aim of improving the estimates of migration between the countries, particularly for young men where it is thought to be most deficient. This will be partially covered by work reconstructing the population series for the eighties and nineties and it is hoped that some improvements can be implemented before the 2002 mid-year estimates to be published in April 2003.

Population projections

A set of 2002-based projections, which take account of the 2001 Census, is planned for publication in November 2003. The 2000-based population projections for Scotland and its administrative areas, published by the Registrar General earlier this year, used the previously published 2000 mid-year estimates as a base, which are some 56,000 higher than the provisionally revised 2000 mid-year estimates published in Table A2. While the 2000-based projections are in need of updating, the general picture of a slowly declining population is still relevant. To obtain revised projections which take account of the results from the 2001 Census prior to the availability of the 2002-based projections, it may be best to apply the previously projected percentage changes to the provisionally revised 2000 population base