Methodology

Alternative migration, fertility, and mortality assumptions were used to produce these variants. The variants produced were constrained to the variant national population projection figures provided by ONS.

For the life expectancy and fertility variants the assumptions were changed to match those in the national level population projections, but the local scaling factors were not altered.

For the zero migration variant, zero in-migration and zero out-migration is projected for the projection period, not just a net migration of zero. Fertility and mortality rate assumptions were left unchanged but the total number of births and population figures were changed to the corresponding values from the national zero migration variant projection.

For more information on population projections methodology see the Methodology Guide on the National Records Of Scotland website, and the Methodology section of the sub-national population projections.